Labour’s leadership may not be a contest at all. Andy Burnham is the favourite, momentum in the party is building behind the former Greater Manchester mayor, and two of the names once seen as rivals have taken themselves out. Wes Streeting and Darren Jones have both decided not to run against him.
Al Carns has not. The MP for Birmingham Selly Oak told BBC Politics Midlands he is waiting for a major economics speech from Burnham before deciding. “Let’s see how that lands, let’s see how much that pulls everybody together,” he said.
Carns resigned as Armed Forces Minister earlier this month over concerns about the defence budget, which he called a pressing issue for the next prime minister. Sir Keir Starmer has since resigned. The government still expects to reveal its Defence Investment Plan before a Nato summit on 7 July.
The arithmetic of a challenge
Standing is not a casual step. To enter a leadership contest, Carns would need the nominations of 81 Labour MPs, along with further endorsements from affiliates such as trade unions.
He has not said he will try. He has not said he will not. What he has said is what would count in Burnham’s favour: a clear picture of the country in 2029 and again in 2034-35, and a route to get there. Carns suggested the picture could include the healthiest nation in Europe or a trillion pounds added to GDP. The detail can wait. “A vision without a plan is a dream,” he said.
Defence and the welfare argument
Carns said defence is among the “key factors” he will be watching for, though he wants it framed more widely. “It’s much broader than just defence, bombs, bullets and battleships, it’s actually about national resilience,” he said.
Asked about funding, he turned down the idea of raising money for the military from welfare. “A pound off a nurse to give it to a soldier? And I just don’t agree with that premise,” he said. His answer was a cross-government push for productivity that he said could take 10% off costs.
Other parties see the same question differently. Conservative MP Neil Shastri-Hurst said defence money should come from the welfare state, and that his party would bring back the two-child benefit cap. He noted that defence spending today is a fifth of the welfare bill. Dawn Husemann, who leads Reform UK’s group on Shropshire Council, said “tens of millions” could be found from net zero and the welfare system.
Sources
- Birmingham MP Al Carns not ruling out Labour leadership yet
- Birmingham MP Al Carns not ruling out Labour leadership yet
