MINNEAPOLIS, October 1 — A high-stakes fight for state political power is underway, with President Donald Trump’s agenda on the line. In the November elections, more than one-third of the states will have legislatures and governors’ offices up for grabs, creating down-ballot drama in the midterms. Outside groups aligned with the two major parties have pledged heavy spending in a battle for control of closely divided legislatures in at least a half-dozen states.
The parties are also striving to make or break a legislative supermajority, which allows them to enact laws with little regard to dissent. In several states, competitive gubernatorial races could determine whether one party achieves a political trifecta, grasping hold of both legislative chambers and the top executive spot.
Party control of state governments can shape policies on contentious issues including abortion, school choice, data centers, and the use of law-enforcement surveillance cameras. The electoral outcomes this cycle could also have congressional redistricting implications for 2028. Voters in 46 states will choose more than 6,100 lawmakers in November, accounting for about 83% of all legislative seats nationwide, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.
Thirty-six states will hold gubernatorial elections. Historically, the party of the president typically loses U.S. House seats in midterm elections, and a similar trend is seen in state legislative seats.
In midterm elections over the past 50 years, the president’s party has lost an average of 7.9% of its house and assembly seats up for reelection in states, according to research by Steven Rogers, a political science professor at Saint Louis University. In Trump’s first midterm, in 2018, Republicans lost 8.7%, Rogers said. A similar showing this year could spell the end of Republican control of legislative chambers in Arizona, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Minnesota currently has the nation’s tightest margins, with an even split between Democrats and Republicans in the House and a one-seat Democratic edge in the Senate. Edith Jorge-Tuñón, president of the Republican State Leadership Committee, conceded that her party is in a defensive position, but argued that voter frustration with Democratic leadership in states like Minnesota or Oregon could provide a buffer against that advantage. The first day of early voting in Minnesota was on Friday, September 18, 2026, according to the Minnesota Secretary of State’s office.
