WASHINGTON, July 8 — The number that matters: one. That is the count of former U.S. presidents who, according to Donald Trump, now considers himself the “No. 1 target” of an alleged Iranian assassination plot. Trump made the declaration on December 10, 2024, during a public event, referring to Iranian “scum” as the planners.
The bottom line: this is not a new claim, but a fresh, public escalation of a threat stream that U.S. intelligence agencies have tracked for years. Investors will note the timing — it lands amid ongoing nuclear negotiations and active regional conflicts involving Iran-backed militant groups.
The date that matters for context: January 3, 2020. That was the date of the U.S. drone strike near Baghdad International Airport that killed Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani. Iran has publicly vowed revenge ever since.
Trump’s statement is the latest chapter in a cycle of retaliation and counter-retaliation that has defined U.S.-Iran relations for over four years. By the numbers, the U.S. government has already demonstrated it takes the threat seriously.
In August 2022, the U.S. Department of Justice charged a member of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) with plotting to assassinate former National Security Advisor John Bolton. Prosecutors alleged that plot was retaliation for Soleimani’s death. No specific plot details or arrests have been publicly confirmed in connection with the alleged threat against Trump as of this date.
Security Response and Intelligence Picture
The U.S. Secret Service continues to provide protection for former presidents, and Trump’s security has been heightened. That is a standard operational response when intelligence agencies flag credible threats against a protectee. But the source material does not specify what new intelligence, if any, triggered the former president’s public statement or the security upgrade.
U.S. intelligence agencies have previously reported threats against former U.S. officials, including Trump, by Iranian actors. The pattern is consistent: Iran has both the motive — revenge for Soleimani — and a demonstrated operational capability, as the Bolton case showed.
The IRGC member charged in 2022 was allegedly in the United States to scout targets, though the plot was disrupted before execution.
Broader Geopolitical Context
Trump’s statement lands in a complex strategic environment. Iran continues to support militant groups across the Middle East. These proxy forces have been used to pressure U.S. interests and allies without direct Iranian military engagement.
Nuclear negotiations remain ongoing, though the source material does not specify their status or the current U.S. negotiating position under the Trump administration. The combination of a nuclear program advancing beyond agreed limits, regional proxy warfare, and direct threats against former U.S. officials creates a layered security challenge.
What to watch next: whether the U.S. government releases any official confirmation of a specific plot, or whether the Justice Department announces charges. The Bolton case set a precedent for public attribution and prosecution. If similar evidence exists regarding Trump, a criminal filing would be the most definitive signal of the threat’s credibility.
Until then, the former president’s claim stands as an unverified but serious statement from a man who has been the target of Iranian rhetoric and, according to U.S. intelligence, operational planning for years.
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