WASHINGTON, June 28 — The figure that matters in the current Beltway debate is zero: zero new policy proposals, zero legislative achievements discussed, zero attention paid to what voters actually want. Instead, the political class is locked in yet another round of hand-wringing over whether the Democratic Party has “gone off the deep end” because a couple of democratic socialists in New York City unseated two incumbents. Democratic strategist James Carville says he’s done with the party over this.
Donald Trump is screaming about communists running rampant. And the mainstream media, by the account of observers familiar with the dynamic, is sighing with relief that they have a storyline to prove they aren’t biased against Trump after all.
And so it goes. Some of us who weren’t born yesterday remember that it was just eight years ago when the same thing happened. Recall that a young upstart by the name of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez unseated New York Rep. Joseph Crowley, a powerful 10-term incumbent and chairman of the House Democratic Caucus.
Ocasio-Cortez’s win was seen as a crisis for the ages. She and a group of young “woke” women of color, dubbed “the Squad,” were feared to be taking a wrecking ball to everything we hold dear because they were just too extreme for the regular folks.
This has happened over and over again when a new generation steps up with a different energy and new ideas: the old guard always freaks out. The bottom line is that the panic is predictable, but it’s also missing the real story. The issue of America’s unconditional support for Israel, especially in the wake of Trump’s disastrous war with Iran, is roiling both parties.
And it’s having an effect at the ballot box. That’s the number that should matter to investors and political strategists alike: the war with Iran is reshaping electoral dynamics in ways that the chatter about democratic socialists simply doesn’t capture. Despite whatever internecine disagreements Democrats have — and they always have them — the party’s various factions are still united on the core question of removing Trump from office.
The calls for generational change are very loud, and for obvious reasons. The old guard’s freakout, however entertaining to watch, is a distraction from the fact that impeachment remains the only answer to Trump’s behavior.
Investors will note that the political uncertainty generated by these internal party battles is real, but it’s also cyclical. The same panic that accompanied Ocasio-Cortez’s 2018 primary win didn’t stop the economy from humming along. What could change the calculation is the war with Iran, which is already affecting supply chains and energy markets in ways that the Beltway hand-wringing simply ignores.
What to watch next: whether the Democratic establishment can channel this generational energy into a focused impeachment push, or whether they’ll continue to let the media’s manufactured crisis over a few primary upsets distract from the real work of holding Trump accountable. The answer will tell investors and voters alike whether the party has learned anything from the past eight years.
