WASHINGTON, September 13 — A new poll released in the run-up to the November 6, 2018, midterm elections finds that few Americans trust political campaigns or President Donald Trump, a snapshot of public confidence that lands as both parties fight for control of Congress. The survey measures confidence in the president and in the campaign apparatus of both parties. Only a small minority of respondents say they trust political campaigns to act in the public interest, and President Trump’s trust rating remains low.
The findings add to a body of public-opinion research showing broad skepticism toward political institutions.
What’s at stake on November 6
Republicans are defending their majorities in the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate. Democrats are seeking to win control of one or both chambers. All 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats are up for election.
Thirty-nine states also hold gubernatorial elections, and state legislative races are on ballots nationwide. The poll’s release underscores the challenge both parties face in motivating voters who express little faith in campaigns or in the president.
Turnout in midterm elections is typically lower than in presidential years; in 2014, about 36.4 percent of the voting-eligible population cast ballots, according to U.S. Elections Project data.
Kavanaugh fight and closing arguments
The survey follows a contentious confirmation fight over Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, whose nomination was confirmed by the Senate on October 6, 2018, after a heated hearing process. President Trump has campaigned actively for Republican candidates, holding rallies in states including Florida, Missouri, Montana, and Indiana. Democratic leaders, including House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, have focused on health care and economic fairness in their closing arguments.
Strategically, the calculus for both parties is straightforward. A base that distrusts the campaign apparatus is harder to move, and the poll suggests that skepticism runs deep enough to complicate the final push.
What this signals for November 6 is a contest in which motivation, not persuasion, may decide the balance of power in Washington.
