MIAMI, October 30, 2026 —
A new poll reveals that Cuban Americans in South Florida intend to vote Republican despite widespread disapproval of President Donald Trump’s deportation policies.
The data highlights a complex political reality where anti-communist alignment outweighs border policy concerns for most voters.
A Stark Split Between Loyalty and Policy
A new poll conducted by Florida International University’s Institute of Cuban Studies shows a clear majority of Cuban Americans support Republicans despite immense disapproval of President Trump’s immigration policies.
The survey covered just over 1,000 Cuban-American adults in Miami-Dade County, where 88 percent were citizens and 96 percent of those citizens were registered to vote.
According to the findings, 67 percent of Cuban Americans in South Florida disapprove of the Trump administration’s increased deportations of Cubans with no criminal record over the first two years of his second term.
Despite that strong disapproval of his immigration policies, 68 percent of Cuban Americans expressed their intent to support the GOP in the upcoming midterm election.
This benchmark is consistent with the all-time high recorded in a previous poll done in 2024.
The Calculus of Historical Alignment
Dr. Guillermo J. Grenier, a sociology professor at FIU, noted that forty-four percent are undecided and that there is some tugging going on close to the elections.
In most districts, Cuban Americans are expected to go Republican on the ballot according to the analysis from the poll.
The breakdown of registered Cuban-American voters shows 53 percent are Republicans, 27 percent are Independents and 18 percent are Democrats.
Dr. Grenier stated that in most districts, Cuban Americans are going to go Republican on the ballot.
Cuba Policy Trumps Border Enforcement
Where Cuban Americans do approve of the president is his handling of policy toward Cuba.
“Everyone, pretty much except those that are born outside of Cuba, approve of the Trump administration’s policy,” said Dr. Grenier.
Sixty percent remain in favor of the decades-long embargo and economic pressure on the island.
This stands in contrast to international norms, as the United Nations General Assembly approved the resolution to condemn the embargo for the 34th year.
A U.S. lobbying push led several countries to oppose or abstain the resolution for the first time in several years.
Broader Stakes and Strategic Implications
The voting trends extend beyond federal races to state-level contests, with significant implications for Republican strategy.
In Florida’s Senate race between Republican Sen. Ashley Moody and Democrat Angie Nixon, the poll found 51 percent supported Moody while only 26 percent stood with Nixon.
A similarly large gap was found in Florida’s gubernatorial race, with 60 percent of Cuban Americans siding with Republican Rep. Byron Donalds and just 24 percent supporting Democrat David Jolly.
“Everybody’s kind of still on the fence, but the wind’s blowing in one direction,” Dr. Grenier said.
This demographic bloc represents a crucial edge for candidates in open seats like the governor’s mansion and special senate elections.
Conclusion
The polling data suggests that for Cuban Americans, the broader stakes of anti-Castro sentiment strategically outweigh domestic immigration enforcement concerns.
Early voting is underway in Miami-Dade and Broward until Nov. 1 at 7 p.m., signaling that this demographic will likely deliver its bloc to the GOP regardless of Trump’s deportation agenda.
Personal Narratives and Strategic Appeals
Frank Rodríguez, a former participant in Operation Peter Pan, describes himself as a “single-issue voter” who prioritizes the future of Cuba over domestic politics. At age 12, he was one of 14,000 children sent to the United States in 1961, an experience that shaped his lifelong political calculus. Rodríguez recently voted for Republican Congresswoman María Elvira Salazar in Florida’s 27th Congressional District, citing the administration’s commitment to the fall of the Castro regime despite his disapproval of certain presidential statements.
The Trump administration has intensified pressure on Cuba through fuel blockades, sanctions, and legal charges against Raúl Castro for murder. On October 23, Commander General Francis L. Donovan of U.S. Southern Command issued a message stating, “Cuba’s future belongs to those who act. Seize the moment and build the change you want to see.” This appeal followed comments by President Trump at a Florida rally suggesting he would focus on Cuba after resolving the war in Iran, as well as Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s call for Cubans to engage in a “discrete partnership with the CIA.”
Many Cuban Americans view these proposals with skepticism, with some describing the CIA partnership appeal as an “insult.” Rodríguez compared the suggestion to a joke by Cuban humorist Guillermo Álvarez Guedes. Despite this criticism, the administration’s aggressive posture toward Havana remains a primary driver of Republican support among this demographic, who see the current government as uniquely dedicated to dismantling the Castro regime.
Geographic Distribution And Voting Patterns
According to the data, the geographic distribution of Cuban Americans plays a significant role in their voting patterns. Florida has the highest concentration of Cuban Americans, with over 1.2 million residing in Miami-Dade County, making them the largest single ethnic group in the area.
Other significant populations of Cuban Americans can be found in Texas, California, New Jersey, and New York, with approximately 140,000, 100,000, 167,000, and 50,000 individuals respectively. These numbers indicate that Cuban Americans are a substantial demographic in various states, potentially influencing election outcomes.
The poll conducted by Florida International University’s Institute of Cuban Studies focused on Miami-Dade County, where 88% of the surveyed Cuban-American adults are citizens, and 96% of those citizens are registered to vote, highlighting the community’s high level of civic engagement.
Sources
- Cuban Americans
- Many Cuban Americans feel betrayed by Trump, but most will still vote Republican: ‘They exploit our pain’
- FIU poll shows Cuban Americans support Republicans despite staunch opposition to Trump’s deportation of Cubans – WSVN 7News | Miami News, Weather, Sports | Fort Lauderdale
Photo: Arnaud Jaegers / Unsplash (Unsplash License)
