A majority of Americans now hold an unfavorable view of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, with opposition to the agency’s tactics running two-to-one, according to a Pew Research Center survey released Monday. The poll, conducted from September 28 to October 4 among 5,062 adults, found 56 percent view ICE unfavorably while only 35 percent view it favorably, making it the least popular of the 12 federal agencies measured.
Partisan And Racial Divides Deepen
The shift crosses party lines, though the gap remains wide. Two-thirds of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents still view ICE favorably, but that figure has dropped from 72 percent a year ago. Among Democrats and Democratic leaners, unfavorable opinions have climbed to 84 percent, up from 78 percent last year.
Racial and ethnic divides are pronounced. Majorities of Black adults (69 percent), Hispanic adults (67 percent), and Asian adults (66 percent) hold negative views, with each group moving substantially further against the agency over the past year. White adults are less negative overall, but the trend is similar: 49 percent now hold an unfavorable view, up from 45 percent in 2025, while favorable views fell from 48 percent to 42 percent. Within the GOP, White Republicans view ICE far more favorably (71 percent) than Hispanic Republicans (53 percent).
Enforcement Surge Drives Visibility
The polling comes amid a sharp expansion of enforcement operations. The Department of Homeland Security says ICE hired 12,000 new officers and agents last year. Arrests have more than doubled in 15 states and the District of Columbia this year, and many sheriffs are partnering with the agency through the 287(g) program to perform federal immigration functions locally.
Republicans and allied groups have spent $53 million on immigration advertising across 27 states from January through June, according to a Slate analysis of the midterm landscape. President Donald Trump has invoked the 1988 Willie Horton ad at campaign rallies, echoing “tough-on-crime” rhetoric from the 1980s and 1990s that researchers say drove election-year spikes in prison admissions during that era.
Echoes Of The Tough-On-Crime Era
Scholars draw a direct line between that period and today. A study published in the Journal of Public Economics found that across nearly 40 states from 1986 to 2006, state prison admissions rose 3 percent in district attorney election years — totaling 63,000 additional admissions — even though crime and arrest rates did not increase. The effect was strongest in the South and in Republican counties, and it faded after 1994 when public demand for harsher courts softened.
Immigration enforcement now occupies similar political ground, though without the bipartisan consensus that once backed tough-on-crime laws. In February, the public was nearly evenly split on deporting all immigrants lacking permanent legal status, with 50 percent in support and 48 percent opposed. Yet 62 percent opposed ICE tactics at that time, and approval of the president’s handling of immigration had fallen 10 points from a year earlier.
Midterms Test The Political Calculus
Congressional Republicans have backed $70 billion in funding for ICE and the Border Patrol, even as protests and local opposition mount in Democratic-led states. The Pew data suggests the political winds may be shifting against the enforcement-first approach that has defined the administration’s first two years. With the midterms days away, the agency’s standing has become a referendum on the tactics themselves.
Historical Context And Political Incentives
The current political landscape regarding immigration enforcement draws clear parallels to the “tough-on-crime” era of the 1980s and 1990s, yet with a notable shift in public consensus. During that previous period, harsh court policies enjoyed near-universal bipartisan support, whereas today’s tough-on-immigration rhetoric lacks such unity. Researchers have documented how political incentives influenced district attorneys during election years from 1986 to 2006, leading to an increase in state prison admissions by 3 percent, totaling 63,000 additional admissions.
This historical pattern suggests that when voters demand harsher courts, the legal system responds accordingly. However, after 1994, public preference for stricter penalties softened, and the election year effects on sentencing diminished. Similarly, while 50 percent of Americans supported deporting all immigrants lacking permanent status in February, a significant majority opposed the specific tactics used by ICE at that same time.
The divergence between rhetorical support and tactical approval is evident in recent funding decisions versus street-level opposition. Congressional Republicans have backed $70 billion for ICE and the Border Patrol, contrasting sharply with protests and local resistance in Democratic-led states. As the midterms approach, the agency’s standing serves as a referendum on these specific tactics rather than just broad policy preferences.
Sources
- San Diego Union-Tribune
- Americans’ Views of ICE Grow More Negative
- These Midterms, ICE Is Truly on the Ballot
Photo: usicegov (Public domain)
